Earnings Reactions 2026

Across 56 earnings prints from 29 companies that SWOTPal graded in 2026, every print with a forward guide below consensus or cut fell: 12 of 12. A beat did not predict the move: 43 prints beat on revenue, EPS or the company's own guide, and 27 of them fell. This page collects every graded print in one table, with the stock reaction as each company page recorded it, and a downloadable CSV of the full dataset.

It also corrects one of our own rules. The Capex Funding-Source Test, which our Google page said held across twelve hyperscaler prints, does not survive a check against the companies' 10-Q cash-flow statements. That correction is in the fourth section.

The Earnings Reaction Scorecard

Each row is one print that a SWOTPal company page graded after the fact (April to October 2026). We sorted the forward guide into three groups using the page's own wording, then counted the stock reaction.

Two things stand out. A guide below consensus or cut was enough on its own: no print in that group rose. A guide above consensus or raised was necessary for a rise more often than not, but it was not enough: 3 of 12 still fell. And when the guide did not move, the stock fell more than twice as often as it rose (20 to 8), so "no news" was not neutral in this sample.

Finding 1: The Guide-Down Rule, 12 of 12

The twelve prints with a forward guide below consensus or cut:

• Walmart Q1 and Q2 FY27 (−7%, −9%): both beat on earnings, and both guided the next quarter below consensus.
• Carnival Q2 FY26 (about −6%): EPS beat, Q3 guide about $1.35 against about $1.42 consensus.
• Accenture Q3 FY26 (about −18%): EPS beat, full-year growth range trimmed.
• Spotify Q1 and Q2 2026 (−13.5%, −1.7%): both beat Spotify's own operating-income guide, and both guided the next quarter below what analysts modelled.
• Nike Q1 FY27 (about −9% after hours): EPS beat, FY27 EPS guide about 22% below consensus.
• Netflix Q2 and Q3 2026 (−7.3%, about −4% to −6% after hours): both beat on EPS, both guided next-quarter revenue below consensus.
• Domino's Q3 2026 (−4.8%): EPS beat, four guide lines cut.
• Lululemon Q2 FY26 (about −18% to −20%): miss and cut.
• Hilton Q2 2026 (−2.5%): beat, Q3 EPS guide below consensus.

Eleven of the twelve beat on the quarter being reported (Spotify's two against its own guide rather than consensus). The quarter was already in the price; the guide was not.

Finding 2: A Beat Is Not a Reason

Our pages record a beat on revenue, EPS or the company's own guide for 43 of the 56 prints. Of those 43, 15 rose, 1 was flat and 27 fell. The beat on its own was close to useless as a signal in this sample, because nearly every company beat. What separated the 15 risers from the 27 fallers was what came next: a raised or above-consensus guide, or a forward number the market had not expected (Microsoft's Azure guide in July, Accenture's FY27 range in October, Spotify's Q4 operating-income guide).

This is why a SWOT watch list that only scores the reported quarter misses the move. Since September, every new SWOTPal earnings test includes a "next-period guide vs consensus" line for this reason.

Finding 3: Four Raised Guides That Did Not Rise

Twelve prints guided above consensus or raised. Three fell and one closed flat. In each case the page found a second line that failed:

The pattern across the four: a raised revenue or earnings guide earns a rise only when the cash line underneath it holds. When the page could name a cash, funding or below-the-line reason for the raise, the market discounted it.

Finding 4: Correcting the Capex Funding-Source Test

Our Google page stated that across twelve 2026 prints from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, "no print that came with outside funding in the quarter was bought," and that the prints the market bought (Alphabet Q1, Amazon Q2, Microsoft Q4 FY26) were funded from operations. Our Meta and Google tables labelled Amazon's first two quarters "internal, no issuance."

When we checked each quarter's proceeds from debt and stock issuance in the companies' 10-Q cash-flow statements (SEC XBRL data), the rule did not hold:

Seven prints came with outside funding in the quarter; three were bought, including the two largest hyperscaler rises after Microsoft's July print. Five did not; one was bought. The falsifying case the Google page said had "still not happened" had already happened twice, in Alphabet Q1 and Amazon Q2. We had read the funding label from the capex discussion on the call rather than from the cash-flow statement.

What survives is narrower: the four hyperscaler prints sold after the funding moved further out (Alphabet's stock sales in Q2 and Q3, Amazon's Q3 debt doubling the year's total, Meta's new share class) all fell. That is consistent with funding mattering at the margin, but twelve prints cannot separate it from the guide and the capex number, and we no longer present it as a rule. The company pages are being corrected to match.

How the Data Was Collected

• Source of each row: the graded section of the linked SWOTPal company page, written after the print. Reactions, consensus figures and guide wording are as each page recorded them, with the issuer release or transcript cited there.
• Reaction timing is not uniform: some rows are the print-day close, some the next session, some after hours. The CSV keeps the page's exact wording.
• Forward-guide groups are our classification of each page's wording. "Raised" without a stated consensus is grouped with "above consensus"; "held," "not given" (Costco gives no guidance) and "not stated" are grouped together.
• Funding figures are proceeds from debt and stock issuance in each quarter's 10-Q cash-flow statement, from SEC XBRL company facts, rounded to $0.1B.
• Limits: 56 prints is a small sample, not a random one. These are companies SWOTPal covers, weighted to U.S. megacaps, retailers and consumer brands. Five older prints that appear only in pre-retrospective text are left out. Treat the counts as a description of 2026, not a trading model.

The Full Dataset

Every row links to the company page that graded it. Download: earnings-reaction-scorecard-2026.csv (56 rows; columns for headline vs consensus, forward guide, reaction wording, reaction direction and, for the four hyperscalers, in-quarter outside funding).

Using This in a SWOT Analysis

The practical lesson for anyone writing a SWOT analysis around an earnings date: the quarter being reported belongs in Strengths or Weaknesses, but the stock moves on the Opportunities and Threats the company puts a number on for next period. Write at least one watch item as "next-period guide vs consensus," give it a band rather than a sign, and check which line pays for any raise. SWOTPal's AI SWOT generator builds the four quadrants and the TOWS matrix; the forward-guide line is the one to add by hand.

Want to run this kind of strategic diagnostic yourself? Try SWOTPal free.